Skylar is a member of the War Studies department at King’s College, London. She wrote this piece as part of her internship with Arts4Refugees. Her motivation was to help her peer group understand the unique experiences of post-conflict communities. This article was edited by Cassia Jefferson, a fellow student journalist from Oxford University. Bernadett from Swinburne University interviewed Skylar for the podcast as well.
Backstory podcast
The Danger of a Ceasefire: More Must Be Done to Help Those in Sudan
This article will discuss Sudan’s recent history with an emphasis on relevant events after 2011, when South Sudan gained independence.
For years, Sudan has been plagued by failed promises of a transition to civilian government – with the latest collapse now apparent as the country falls back into conflict. While international actors such as the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are focused on mediating an agreement between the warring parties to achieve a ceasefire, much more will need to be done to help Sudan and its people recover.
Background on Sudan’s Rocky Democratic Transition
The first opportunity in recent years for a democratic transition in Sudan followed the military overthrow of then-President Omar al Bashir in April 2019, after months of protests led by Sudanese civilians (BBC). Sudan’s Transitional Military Council led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the opposition Forces for Freedom and Change arrived at an agreement to form a transitional, civilian-led government. While this sounded good on paper and made many citizens hopeful, the agreement gave the military significant power and did not hold up over time.
The next opportunity for a democratic transition arose in October 2021, when General Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) committed an additional coup against their civilian counterparts in the transitional government, removing Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. After the 2021 coup, negotiations for a transition from military to civilian rule took place again and on 5 December 2022 the Framework Agreement (FA) was signed by Sudan’s military leaders, political organisations, and civil society groups (Chatham House).This agreement included a transitional constitution and promised the formation of a civilian government by April 2023. However, as the deadline to finalise this agreement grew closer, Sudan’s military and paramilitary group – the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – repeatedly delayed negotiations.
Current Conflict
In mid-April, General Burhan’s SAF and the RSF led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) began to clash. Increasing tensions between the groups have resulted from a power rivalry between the two generals following the 2021 coup in which General Burhan became the country’s de facto leader and General Hemedti became second in command (BBC). In line with the last agreement, the SAF was due to absorb the 100,000 members of the RSF. However, as implementation became more of a reality and the RSF redeployed around the country, General Burhan no longer saw absorption of the RSF as a viable option because it challenged his control of the country and its economy. As such, key deadlines for Sudan’s democratic transition passed by with little progress, creating room for conflict to develop.
The location of this renewed conflict is important to consider. Centred in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum as well as other major cities, the population density in the combat areas is higher than in previous Sudanese conflicts. As a result, many more civilians are being caught in the crossfire (BBC). Several proposed agreements between the SAF and RSF for a temporary ceasefire to allow civilians to leave the country or to create humanitarian corridors have failed.
Human Impact
The ongoing fighting is taking a major toll on Sudanese civilians and humanitarian conditions are worsening by the day. Many people, particularly in Khartoum, have limited or no access to water, food, medication, and electricity. Combatants have destroyed a central water plant, forcing some people to make a dangerous trek to the Nile River for water (BBC). Any time someone leaves their home they risk being shot. Because of these dangers, shops that have not yet run out of essential supplies cannot operate. Even within their homes, residents of Khartoum are not safe as many shootings and airstrikes have destroyed residential areas. In other areas, forces are looting homes, taking what little resources people have left. There have also been reports of sexual violence, particularly by the RSF, although the details are difficult to uncover given the limited electricity and internet coverage available for media or other official outlets to report on cases (United Nations, BBC).
Additionally, the fighters appear to not be adhering to international humanitarian law – they are attacking public places such as hospitals and schools without giving prior warning to allow non-combatants to evacuate (United Nations). These attacks have killed civilians and destroyed critical infrastructure. As of late April, only 16 percent of Khartoum’s hospitals were fully operational (World Health Organization). In the few hospitals still open, soldiers have made threats against doctors and in some cases taken over the hospital to treat their forces (Al Jazeera). As such, there are extremely limited resources left for the many sick and wounded civilians.
The violence in Sudan has prompted more than 120,000 people to flee the country, mostly to neighbouring states like Chad and South Sudan which are both still dealing with their own sources of instability (New York Times). Such a large influx of Sudanese migrants to countries already hosting a significant number of refugees could overwhelm their respective governments and limit their capacity to help the individuals in need. In the first month of the conflict, approximately 334,000 people were internally displaced within Sudan, suggesting that widescale assistance will be needed to provide shelter and essentials like food and water throughout the country (United Nations). Although some countries such as the UK and US provided airlifts to evacuate their diplomats and citizens at the beginning of the conflict, many people did not have the ability to get safely to the designated meeting points and were thus left behind (BBC). Those still in Sudan have few chances to get out, especially because embassies are shut down and the RSF have captured Khartoum’s international airport. Local and international humanitarian agencies still on the ground in Sudan have reported that their convoys and warehouses have been looted by the fighters, further limiting the critical resources available to increasingly desperate civilians. If the situation continues to worsen, some humanitarian groups may face the difficult choice of removing their people from the country, which would further destabilise the situation and add to human suffering.
In terms of addressing the conflict, the international community- particularly the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE- are largely unified in calling for a ceasefire to stop the violence and allow for peace talks to begin. While this is a necessary step in the process of conflict resolution, much more will need to be done. Even once a successful ceasefire is established, the citizens of Khartoum and other urban centres will require significant aid to rebuild their lives. Outside Sudan, the conflict threatens to spill over into neighbouring countries such as Chad and Ethiopia, making stability a major concern for the larger region.
It is important to note that the media and others monitoring the conflict closely often tend to drop their coverage once the period of active fighting is over. However, this tendency to pivot once a war is no longer “hot” is problematic because the situation, as we will likely see in Sudan, is one that is complex and will take time to fully resolve. The human impact of war should not be forgotten once the daily shelling and bombardments have concluded, as there are millions of people who are in need of aid.
Thank you for reading an A4R 🎨 Post. Don’t forget to share it with your friends and family.