The effect of the climate crisis on post-conflict Syria
Syria typically experiences sunny summers and mild winters. However, the countryβs geographical location makes it vulnerable to the effects of the climate crisis, with it recently seeing increased levels of droughts, floods, heatwaves and sand and dust storms. The impacts of the climate crisis that Syria will increasingly face in the coming years are complicated by its ongoing civil war as it is well-established that the climate crisis and conflict are heavily interlinked. With the recent fall of Bashar al-Assadβs violent regime, this is a critical moment for Syria to rebuild itself, however, the climate crisis will not make it easy.
On the 15th March 2011, Syrian forces shot into a crowd of protesters in Daraβa who were objecting to the treatment by the regime of a group of young boys that had graffitied pro-democracy messages. This sparked an uprising which, by February 2012, had led to a civil war, and indeed a proxy war for international conflicts to play out. Several researchers have cited the climate crisis as one of the causes of the war. From 2006-2010, Syria experienced an intense drought, mainly caused by higher temperatures which were found to be made 25 times more likely by the climate crisis, increasing the likelihood of the event from a 1-in-250-year event to a 1-in-10-year event. The drought decimated many agricultural regions, forcing nearly 2 million rural dwellers to move to urban areas. The tension between urban populations and the new rural-to-urban migrants has been proposed to have increased the Syrian peopleβs dissatisfaction with the government, leading to the uprising and subsequent civil war. However, other researchers are concerned about focusing only on the role of the climate crisis in the conflict. Some have found little evidence for the claim that the drought caused migration which in turn caused the civil war, while others emphasise the importance of looking at the political and social factors that contributed to the conflict, for example, in 2008, a presidential decree made land sales harder which was a contributing component of migration. While the role of the climate crisis in causing the Syrian civil war remains contested, the increasing negative effects caused by the climate crisis will certainly affect Syria in its effort to recover after the Bashar al-Assad regime.
One major area that the climate crisis will affect will be agriculture and herding. Wheat is Syriaβs main crop, but with significantly lowered amounts of rainfall in many regions, its production decreased by 80% between 2020 and 2022. This led to 12 million people suffering from food insecurity in 2022 and increased rates of malnutrition. This adds to an already overburdened health system, which will be faced with increasing demand due to climate crisis-related issues, such as increased rates of respiratory diseases caused by more sand and dust storms. Before the war, agriculture also made up 19% of Syriaβs GDP and provided over half the jobs in rural areas. But with jobs in agriculture becoming less and less common, many people have had to migrate to other areas which has in turn put pressure on the land, leading to a vicious cycle. For example, many displaced Syrians moved to the countryβs coast, which has 90% of Syriaβs vegetation, but in turn, there has been a rise in land erosion and pollution. The new government has intertwining pressures as they attempt to rebuild Syriaβs economy and agriculture sector, and no doubt the climate crisis will play a part in this.
There are 6 million Syrian refugees who have fled and relocated to other countries, mainly in neighbouring Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, due to conflict and/or climate-related reasons. In an interview with the UNFCCC, Andrew Harper, the Special Advisor on Climate Action to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, said that Syrian refugees are unlikely to return home, in part due to the climate crisis. He stated that 90% of refugees globally come from countries that are most impacted by the climate crisis, mostly due to the fact that they do not have the economic capacity to adapt or prepare for the changing climate. With the Global North being responsible for 92% of the emissions driving the climate crisis, there is a clear disparity between who is causing the crisis and who will be affected by it.
Not only will the negative effects of the climate crisis make it harder for Syrian refugees to return home and increase the number of climate refugees, but these effects will also impact those internally displaced. Syria has 7.2 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is the second-highest rate of IDPs in the world, mostly due to the civil war. The International Committee of the Red Cross found that the majority of people who are displaced because of armed conflict typically relocate to climate βhotspotsβ. Although these hotspots are typically uninhabited and so have space, they are so for a reason. They are more prone to climate disasters and have poor access to services and resources, and unfortunately, these problems will remain when Syrian IDPs move there. Another reason why IDPs will be hit hardest by the climate crisis is that they often live in temporary housing and settlements, such as tents, which are not designed to be climate crisis-resistant. In Syria, 75% of IDP sites do not have protective infrastructure for when there is flooding, while in other months, they have no access to water. An example of one such settlement is the Al-Hol camp in the northeast of the country. It is the largest camp in Syria and 65,000 people have relocated there. In the early part of 2021, this northeastern region experienced heavy rainfall and flooding. The flooding affected 122,953 internally displaced and destroyed 8,400 shelters and damaged 13,800. An intense drought then struck the area, with rainfall more than 80% lower than average and temperatures 6.1Β°C higher.
The climate crisis will also make peacebuilding efforts from international bodies more tenuous in the coming years. Agricultural issues will make it harder to ensure resource security and fewer economic options can make it difficult to ensure disarmament, while climate disasters can massively set back operations. Yet, focusing on the potential of peace operations by international bodies is limited due to their Western focus on liberal democracy and emphasis on market-driven solutions. Instead, focusing on bottom-up, local solutions will not only be more context-sensitive but may also be a chance for collaboration between opposing forces. While climate adaptation must be conflict-sensitive, climate-friendly peacebuilding offers a chance for this collaboration.
All in all, the fall of the brutal 54-year al-Assad regime marks a new chapter for Syria and its people. However, although it is a chance for peacebuilding, the many threats of the climate crisis loom large. From straining the vital agricultural sector to making life harder for internally displaced people and refugees, the climate crisis will certainly exacerbate numerous problems Syria is facing. Yet, as pointed out by some researchers, climate adaptation can be a unifying, collaborative project that could help bring peace to Syria.
In this episode Anna discusses the impact of the climate change of the post conflict Syria. She is a student journalist with us on a placement organised with Oxford University Career Services. This article was edited using Lex.page.
Thank you for reading an A4R π¨ Post. Donβt forget to visit our gift shop here. Every purchase scales our impact and pays our bills.
Share this post