As a fragmented Syria struggles to take shape, the shadowy threat of the Islamic State is re-emerging
Since 2011 Syria has endured a brutal civil war under the iron fist of Bashar al-Assad. More than half a million people have been killed and twelve million displaced. (ShelterBox, n.d.) However, this came to an end in December 2024, a historic turning point in a decade-long war, when Sunni rebel forces under Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched an offensive and seized Damascus. Despite the fall of Assad, the situation remains unstable. The rebels who stormed Damascus have a complex history, and as new power dynamics continue to take shape, all eyes are on interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa to see how he is going to govern a fragmented region and prevent a resurgence of IS. (ICCT, 2025)
While HTS maintains majority control and enjoys popular support, they form the de facto government. This depends on political legitimacy and economic reconstruction. However, while al-Sharaa pledged to protect all citizens, the recent attacks by IS has made people doubt their capacity to maintain stability. This will only be further hindered, as Sharaa, who formally led Syria’s offshoot of Al-Qaeda, Nusra Front, only broke away from the network a decade ago. As a result, HTS is still considered a terrorist organisation by nations such as the UK and the US. Various sanctions have been imposed making it very difficult to navigate Syria’s future given the region’s severe poverty levels. The EU has lifted some sanctions, and pledged €2.5 billion during the 9th Syria Conference. However, this is conditional on the pledge that the rights of ethnic minorities are safeguarded in the new Syria (ICCT, 2025) (PRIF, 2025)
In the first few months of 2025, al-Sharaa’s legitimacy has also been questioned by a steady increase in sectarian violence. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated that more than 1,400 civilians have been killed in Latakia, mostly from the Alawite community. A minority religious group considered an offshoot of Shia Islam. (France 24, 2025) The Assad family belonged to this sect, who ultimately enjoyed disproportionate influence inside the former regime. (Reuters, 2025) These events took place during a period of unrest in the region due to armed clashes between Sunni Islamist-led government forces and insurgency fighters that are still loyal to the deposed regime. The conflict led to thousands of families seeking refuge in a remote Russian military airbase. This is the last Dalaal Mahna saw of her 25-year-old son, before being shot dead by gunmen. (BBC, 2025) Ethnic divisions intensified by decades of an authoritarian regime have left devastating lasting grievances, highlighting the deep polarisation that the new government has yet to overcome. As the interim government struggles for authority nationwide, these remote, poorly governed areas are becoming a fertile breeding ground for IS to exploit, to regroup and train new recruits with relative ease. (PRIF, 2025)
ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant), more commonly known as Da’esh or the Islamic State (IS), is a Salafi Jihadist group, with its origins in Al Qaeda in the security vacuum in the early 2000s following the US invasion of Iraq. Under the leadership of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, IS broke away seeking to exploit the instability in the region during the war. In 2013 it began seizing territory, and by 2014 it had overrun the Syrian government, declaring a global Caliphate, claiming religious and political authority over the Muslim world. In the following years, IS would control a region the size of England, governing more than 12 million people, with 50,000 fighters from over 100 nations. Enforcing a rigid interpretation of Sharia law, committing mass atrocities, and displacing millions of Syrians. Posing a grave threat to regional stability, the U.S. led Global Coalition Against Daesh spent the next five years recapturing 95% of the region, with the final stronghold falling in 2019, reducing IS to a desert pocket with few insurgent cells. (PRIF, 2025) Despite the collapse of the self-proclaimed caliphate, signs of a gradual IS recovery is evident, with the danger of a resurgence due to a 10-fold increase in attacks. (United Nations, 2025) (BBC, 2015)
Following the collapse of the caliphate, IS has undergone a transformation from a territorial regime to a decentralised insurgent group. This has been made possible by the caches of gold and cash hidden in the Badiyah desert. Furthermore, as the Assad regime collapsed, they were furnished with a fresh supply of weapons from abandoned Syrian army stocks, allowing them to intensify their operations. In 2023, IS was responsible for more than 200 attacks against Assad’s forces and their Shi’a allies, killing more than 285 soldiers and 231 civilians. (Counter Extremism Project, 2023) However, by 2024 this number tripled with more than 750 deaths, illustrating the persistent and growing threat in Syria. (PRIF, 2025)
Walid-Basit Sheikh Mousa was only 21 years old when he was killed fighting IS in Northeastern Syria in February. Mousa was killed during a battle near a dam, with his body eventually being found by his family when searching the front lines. His mother, when speaking to the BBC said, “We buried so many of the young. May Daesh be wiped out completely. I hope not one of them is left.” (BBC, 2015)
Milad was just 40 years old when we was killed trying to push a suicide attacker out of a building. A further 24 people were killed at the Greek Orthodox Church in eastern Damascus in June 2025. The attacker, belonging to IS, began shooting indiscriminately before setting off an explosive injuring 60. The first attack since HTS overthrew Assad’s regime, and the first targeting of the Christian community since 1860. The attack was an attempt to undermine the security and stability of all religious communities. Milad’s family members expressed this opinion stating, “We are not safe here anymore.” (EURACTIV, 2015) (BBC, 2025)
The shadowy threat of the group remains severe in Syria, as the U.S. Government estimates that 1500 to 3000 active fighters remain. The group has been forced to abandon the dream of the caliphate and has undergone a radical structural and operational change. The group now relies on a less hierarchical structure and a more decentralised network of regional affiliates who operate with greater autonomy than ever before to enhance the chances of survival. (ICCT, 2025) The old battle against IS mostly continues in the Kurdish-controlled regions in the Northeast, as 10,000 fighters are currently being held in detention camps, where 75% inside are estimated to still be deeply committed to the ideology. A further 60,000 IS- affiliated individuals remain in ticking- time bomb detention camps, where they are arguably increasingly vulnerable to radicalisation. (PRIF, 2025)
The group is seeking to rebrand itself behind bars, as in camps such as Al Hol and Roj, a new generation is being raised through the ‘Cubs of the Caliphate’ programme. These children were separated from their families, often experiencing the brutal murder of their parents, and herded into re-education camps, where their traumas were moulded into rage. The early indoctrination of these young male soldiers became an integral component of the army of the future, due to the notion that they would be more hardline than their predecessors. (PRIF, 2025) As a result, Kurdish authorities are reporting breakout attempts and mass rioting at the centres, as IS remains determined to free an important aspect of their fighting force. A humanitarian source speaking to Reuters stated that “IS will come for the people they’ve wanted to come for.” (Reuters, 2025) This was evident in January 2022, when IS blasted a hole in the exterior wall of al-Sina prison camp, triggering a 10-day battle against allied forces. By the time the prison was back under the control of Kurdish forces, 500 were dead, and hundreds had escaped back into IS. This was the deadliest IS attack since they lost their last stronghold. (The Washington Post, 2025)
US-funded organisations have been integral in closing the gap in basic provisions and countering the threat emanating from IS today, as the government struggles to secure the camps after the conflict. (Margolin, 2025) However, recent aid cuts of $117 million by the Trump administration poses a severe security threat, as these camps hold the “potential next generation of the Islamic State.” If destabilised, IS will be able to reinforce its ranks, restore their operational capabilities, and destabilise Syria’s new government. (BBC, 2025) (ICCT, 2025)
The defeat of IS marked a significant turning point in the fight against terrorism, IS ceded to control swathes of territory, but is now clear that its “enduring defeat” is not assured, as its threat persists globally (BBC, 2019) Following the fall of Assad’s regime in December 2024, the tenuous control of the de facto government and ongoing sectarian violence has led to a security vacuum in the region. IS is actively seeking to exploit this, allowing them to regroup and reorganise to pose a lethal and adaptive threat. All eyes are on HTS in the fragile environment. If instability persists and hostilities continue, there is a severe risk of an IS resurgence.
References
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In this episode Cerys discusses the post Asad experience of Syria and the potential of ISIS re-merging. She is a Citizen journalist with us on a placement organised with Department of War Studies, KCL. This article was edited using Lex.page.
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